X Will Win in Y Days/Hours

Strategy, feedback, or anything SUBTERFUGE-related
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:49 pm

  • Just some feedback on this mechanic--

    I feel like it is good to let people know the projected end of the game, but I feel like this prompt is basically a little too aggressive in telling people, 'hey, you need to all gang up on this guy.'

    The forecasting of showing the projected winner 4 days out seems a little too aggressive considering how much can change that would dramatically alter the game in that time. It seems unlikely that the game state would stay static enough over that long to actually have that be a set in stone projection. Despite the relative uncertainty of the projection, having someone's name sitting up there probably has a pretty strong effect on player behavior, though.

    Two players can be very close to the same projected win time, but one player gets the benefit of not being called out to everyone.

    I feel like you could limit this to the last day or two of the game and not jump on it quite so early.
    Jayde
     
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Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:10 am

  • Jayde, no one has ganged up on you all game.
    privatezod
     
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Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:46 am

  • I was actually more referring to you. ;)

    I've purposefully avoided being the top person as much as possible, even if it's by a tiny amount, since it seems like it's really bad to have your name up there even with alliances and such.

    You got called out at around 4 days and people started piling on. Miguel and myself were really close to the same long-term trajectory, but you were slightly above and were a much bigger target because of it.

    I think that is too early in the game to really paint a target on someone unless the person is waaaay ahead.

    (I also know from the dev diary that the 20% loss on mine loss is an intended bit to break the win-more cycle, but it does seem much too easy to nuke someone's progress into the stone age if you gang up on them--which seems to be what that prompt would most likely cause.)
    Jayde
     
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Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:57 am

  • Yeah, I didn't like having my name up there for the first few days. I think my betrayal of my allies might've contributed more to the conflict I now find myself in. I also realized too late that spending Np is rarely worth it. If I had kept it all I would've won days ago. I think with the new Np spending this is no longer a week long game.
    privatezod
     
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Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:01 pm

  • the "bullseye on the forehead" is up there mostly because the end snuck up on people when they weren't expecting it. they had a "what? it's over?" kind of reaction.

    one of the things we're planning to do in the intel panel is show graphs for different quantities that include both the past and the projected future. the neptunium graph should make it a lot clearer if it's a tight race or if one player is really just way ahead of everyone.
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    ron
     
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Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:48 pm

  • Yes! Just make the Intelligence Report interact with the Time Machine.
    czechcongo
     
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Thu Feb 19, 2015 4:33 pm

  • Yeah Ron, I can see how that could be the case. A graph would be really helpful, especially with projections. Being able to get forecasting on the info panel would be super-useful.

    Even if the bullseye is kept, I just wonder if you could limit it to 48 hours or something (since that is still plenty of time to try to do something about it) rather than 4 days or whatever.
    Jayde
     
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Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:03 pm

  • I have not once seen that message about someone winning in x days and had it cause me to panic and attack them. Very rarely does someone that far out in front with NP production have any better chance of winning then someone with no mines.

    Plus, anyone could look at the player data and do the math.

    I really like having the "clock" up there reminding me that I need to make a move.

    Also, it's worth pointing out that to be the one called out, you have to bring it on yourself. It's not random. It's not up to anyone else. If you end up with a game of aquatic chicken because no one wants there name up there then that is just part of the flavor of that match.

    A far bigger indicator or relative strength are drill production rates and number of bases.

    NP is a great way to put a time limit on games, and what good is a time limit if there is no clock counting down?
    FateCreatr
     
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Fri Feb 20, 2015 5:56 am

  • Jayde wrote:Even if the bullseye is kept, I just wonder if you could limit it to 48 hours or something (since that is still plenty of time to try to do something about it) rather than 4 days or whatever.

    Disagree. 48 hrs is NOT enough.
    czechcongo
     
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Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:00 am

  • FateCreatr wrote:I have not once seen that message about someone winning in x days and had it cause me to panic and attack them. Very rarely does someone that far out in front with NP production have any better chance of winning then someone with no mines.


    This is basically what I'm saying, though. If it doesn't actually mean something, why call it out? An analytical player may come to the conclusion that it doesn't actually matter, but it does feel like psychologically it will influence many players to attack whoever has their name at the top. If they are not actually far enough ahead for it to practically matter, putting a bullseye on them seems un-fun.

    NP is a great way to put a time limit on games, and what good is a time limit if there is no clock counting down?


    I think the issue here is that it's not really a 'clock' since it can go up and down so easily at the moment. Perhaps this is related to spending Np for specialists if the game becomes a specialists arms race, but the initial projection of who was winning said our game would end 3 days ago (and thus was called out like 7 days ago!) and it is still going. It seems like singing someone out that early is jumping the gun a little bit.
    Jayde
     
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