Intro
This is intended to be a complete competitive guide to Subterfuge, so please forgive the length. Also because Subterfuge is such a nuanced guide, you will see it is not written as a narrative "do this, then this, then this" but rather as a large collection of concepts. I also hope to do a series of videos to provide examples of what I am saying, if I can find enough time.
About Me
At the time of writing this, I am currently ranked 13th on the global leaderboard. I have achieved this in 7 games (only 5 of which were ranked), which is the fewest in the top 35 or so. To me, that means two things: 1) I'm having great success with what I am doing, 2) I actually have much less experience game-for-game than most other other players. I point this out not (only) to brag, but also because I think it qualifies me to write a guide. I will admit however that I am not perfect, and welcome critique and additions to what I am saying.
It occurred to me that perhaps I shouldnt write this guide, because learning players might use it to get better and beat me, while skilled players might use it to exploit holes in my strategy. Then it occurred to me that I have never finished below second place, and I could use the challenge! So, as a wise man once said, "Come at me, bro." (for real though, putting myself out here like this is somewhat terrifying, so please don't autogank me to prove a point!)
Philosophy concepts/Misc
-Always vs. Viable vs. Never: I will try to frame each aspect of my guide as one of these 3 things. One of the things that makes Subterfuge great is how many strategies fall under the Viable category, and how few fall under the Always/Never categories. Because viable strategies are so numerous, I may not be able to even conceive of them all, let alone fit them all in this guide. My focus will be more on the always/never for the sake of this guide. Also keep in mind this is a competitive guide, so while certain strategies might be very fun to try, many of those are not reliable ways to win and will not be found in this guide.
-Offense is the Best Defense: This phrase is used commonly in games/sports, and its truth is determined largely by the game. In Subterfuge its pretty true. I'm not saying you should never go on defense, but I am saying you should never WANT to go on defense. The more successful your offense is, the more resources you have to defend with later, should you be forced into a defensive position.
-Hot or Cold, not Lukewarm. Aka, Do or Do Not, There is No Try: This is something I find applies to virtually all aspects of Subterfuge. You are either attacking someone, or you are not. You are taking the outpost, or you are not. You are turtling, or you are not. If you are switching from one to the other, this switch needs to happen as quickly and deliberately as possible.
-Don't play too many games at once: I see this a lot, and it hurts people's performance. I myself have only ever played 1 game at a time. The game may seem slow at times, but there is a TON to do and think about while your subs take forever getting to their destinations. Think about who you're going to attack next, who might attack you next, check your drill cap to make sure you wont max out soon, think about what specialist you want next, TALK TO PEOPLE. To win the most games possible, you should play as best as possible, and that can only happen if you spend a lot of time/focus on each game.
Diplomacy concepts/strategies
Diplomacy is a primo example of something that has many many many viable strategies, all of which I cant hope to encompass in one guide. Ill try to stick to concepts, and a few of the strongest strategies I have seen/employed. Some of these things might sound obvious, but you would not believe how often people do it wrong.
-Talk to people (a lot): All diplomacy requires communication, and silence is a universal sign to distrust. This is especially true before the game has even started, as people are very easily spooked and/or looking for someone to gank. It also tends to be true that the more you talk to someone, the more they trust you and want to work with you (so long as you dont message them so often that it annoys them).
-Negotiate with Neutral/Ally players: You can get a lot more from people than you might think, just by asking people for things that are somewhat reasonable and/or negotiating deals. The best example of this is negotiating border (to be discussed later). Other examples: Does someone have a scary number of drills on your border? Ask them politely to move them away. Is your drill cap way too low for your level of production? Try to trade a factory for a gen.
-Be explicitly clear about diplomacy, or don't be (Hot or Cold): If you are explicit about your diplomacy, it makes it more likely that the other player will follow it, but also means that if you break it, you could start to earn a bad reputation (not applicable in anonymous mode). If you are purposely vague about your diplomacy, it can leave wiggle room to back out of assumed deals that were never actually made. The other guy will not be happy about this, but you can at least save some face by blaming him for not being more careful about what was agreed to. Either way, be in control of this choice- be deliberate with whether your diplomacy was explicit or assumed.
-ANY hostile act by someone you have diplomacy with is justification for breaking it: This could be a direct attack, or reliable information that he has been conspiring against you. Likewise there are some borderline acts that might be enough depending on the context, like ignoring critical questions, moving a suspiciously large force to your shared border without good cause, etc. Remember to be Hot/Cold about breaking it though. Once you no longer need to investigate whether there is grounds to break your diplomacy, dont be suspicious or aggressive toward them until it is time to attack, and only then explain how they broke diplomacy to warrant your attack.
-Dont be passive. It would be really cool to see someone win a game without ever fighting, and making all of their progress by negotiating trades and influencing the board through funding. Unfortunately I have never seen this work, and would never suggest attempting it as a competitive strategy.
-Be aggressive but not reckless. An aggressive player picks a target, and destroys them quickly, and starts looking for the next target while quietly discussing with his allies who that target should be. A reckless player picks fights arbitrarily, without knowing whether he has allies or whether they will assist in his next war. Reckless players frequently find themselves the "asshole" and end up on the wrong side of 2v1/3v1s and get eliminated early. Good aggressive players often finish with a medal.
-Fight with unfair numbers: Yes, always. If you think an honorable 1v1 is how you want to fight, you can, but competitively that is never ideal. Every time you are at war, you are distracted and vulnerable (the rewards make this worthwhile). You want to win every war as quickly as possible to reduce the time in which you are vulnerable, and also to grow the largest empire faster than others who are trying to do the same, so that your win condition can come faster than theirs. A 1v1 fight proceeds extremely slowly, and could turn into a standoff, or worse- into a losing fight. Embrace your allies, and seek out those 2v1s, or 3v2s, or 3v1s.
-Once you are at war with someone, don't stop till one of you are eliminated. It is tempting to try diplomacy with someone youve been at war with, because you've come to pity/respect them, or to deal with other problems. DONT DO IT. They will try to kill you. While this might not be 100% true, it is so close that I would say as a rule you should always follow this. The only exception to this is if a player is so turtled up that you can not finish them- in this case, keep forces in place to ensure they stay contained.
-Experiment with timed warning peace agreements. Ive had good (viable) success with time based peace, where if either side wants to cancel the deal, you must give an agreed to amount of time (24hrs being most common) after your warning before you will start your attack.
-Secretly ally with everyone?: I personally do not have a lot of respect for this strategy, but it does seem to work (viable). The basic idea is to make allies with most of the people in the game, sometimes as multi-person alliances, and then pick which alliance you like better and betray the other alliance once it suits you. This does carry its own risk if you are not careful, that both sides will realize what you are doing and turn against you. It can also be bad for your long-term reputation.
Military concepts
-Use the time machine. Use it a lot. Run many many different possibilities until you have the move closest to perfect that you can possibly think of. If you need to get the brain juices flowing on your possibilities, try some puzzles (replay if you finished).
-Control every drill: Every drill should always be serving a purpose- in motion or stationed at their purpose the moment they are built. This is probably the biggest single mistake I see people make. There is no reason to keep drills scattered all over your base "just in case" someone somehow instantly blasts their way into the center of your territory. Think of drills as the blood of your military- and pump that blood to where it is needed. Yes, it seems like those 6 drills are not a lot, and it seems like they will never get to where you want them. Have faith- 6+6+6 adds up quickly, and that travel time isnt as bad as you think.
-Win your fights, but modestly: By modest, Im not talking about being polite, but rather not needlessly overkilling. This is because (unless you have King), it makes no difference how much you win a fight by. What matters is that you win. Send only what you need to win, and move the rest of your drills at a new target(s). (This gets tricky when specialists are at play, because you do want your specialists involved in as many productive fights as possible).
-Keep close eye on your drill cap: Imagine that every cycle your factories miss because they are capped, that many drills just died. Thought about this way, you will realize that your cap might be killing significantly more drills than any enemy specialist could ever kill. You never want to be capped. Get more gens, get a Tinkerer/Minister of Energy, build a mine, or let loose on an enemy, but try to never be capped. Remember that clearing your cap takes time, so take action before the cap comes, not after.
-Don't feel compelled to always fight constantly. Just because you can fight, doesn't mean you must to do it constantly for the entire game. One benefit of being the player on the offensive is that you are in control of when it happens, and who it happens with. Take advantage of this power, and only do it when you are confident in your choice, and are ready to fight. While you never want to be drill capped, you also dont want to willingly start a fight while low on drills.
-Try not to "rubber-band" your own Nep when taking someone else mine. Its a hard rule that every time a mine is lost, Nep is only lost, and none is gained. This means that by back-and forth fighting over a mine, both players can suffer huge Nep losses. Avoid this problem by only taking a mine when either (a) you have no/little Nep to lose, or (b) you are certain you can hold the mine the moment you take it.
-Know the strength of shields as what they are (no more, no less). Players can tend to either overly fear shields, or drastically underestimate them. I think those who fear them tend to do so because of the visual aspect of that scary white circle building up, and would not carry this fear if the outpost only gave a numerical indicator, like the way drills do. I think those who underestimate shields do so because of reckless tendencies.
-Target factories on offense, generally. Factories are usually much higher priority targets over gens and even mines, because they are actively producing front-line drills which dont have to travel for a single second to defend that outpost, and have quick speed to counter-attack your assault. Therefore you generally want them out of the picture asap. The exception to this rule, is if your target has very high drill production rate, and very low cap space. Then you can take his gens first, which will ensure that he wont be able to produce from any factory, let alone his front-liners. I would apply the "hot-or-cold" concept to this- either go hard after factories, or go hard after gens. Don't be lukewarm by going after both with equal priority.
-Understand the Specialists: (see the very end of this guide for a quick ranking and breakdown of each specialist). The specialists are so beautifully designed, and are possibly the most complex aspect of the game (beaten perhaps only by diplomacy). Read their abilities very carefully, think about how they might interact with each other, research reddit/forums/youtube to see how other people have utilized them. Specialist choice and usage is largely what distinguishes the great players from the average ones. Remember: most but not all specialists effects stack with themselves and others. Move speed bonuses do not stack, except that the Admiral +50% global effect will. Also, the martyr does not gain range from vision enhancers. Everything else should work together if logically possible.
Opening
The opening is a terrifyingly critical part of the game. It is when players are most even, as drills and outposts are even, and specialists are at a minimum. Ironically because it is so even, this is also when the game can be most unfair, because the most militarily skilled player in the game might get eliminated and finish in last place, merely because he got outnumbered by multiple poor military players. Fear not! There are principles to follow that can help you survive this critical and unforgiving stage.
-Review the diplomacy concepts outlined earlier. Diplomacy made before the game has even started can often last the whole game. At least make border agreements about who gets which outposts is a great way to start building a relationship with your neighbor, and has the potential to get you bonus outposts you wouldnt have even expected to get. Choose your friends well, make peace with those you need to, and find the one who I like to call... "the asshole."
-"The asshole": Is a player who is sometimes, but not always, an asshole. More generally it is the guy who attacks or even contests outposts without allies to back him up. Often, this is the guy who tries to open aggressively, sometimes against multiple people. This aggression might come by being threatening in chat, but is more commonly seen by contesting outposts which are closer to other players. These people are great tools (and also why I strongly suggest not being overly aggressive during the opening unless you know you have diplomatic support). As soon as the asshole emerges, it because very easy to form a 2v1, if not 3v1 against him, because at the very least his target will fight along with you. It might also be viable to team up with the asshole instead, if you like his style. However be careful doing this, as being thought of as the "bad guy" can be dangerous both in this game, and for your reputation in future games.
Sometimes the asshole is not so easily found. There are lots of viable ways to deal with this, like spreading rumors(viable but not my personal preference), being patient and waiting for someone else to attack, setting up solid diplomacy to ensure you are safe to open up the first attack, etc. Remember however, that conspiring to build a gank squad against someone is a quick way to become the asshole yourself if you are not careful about who you share information with.
By the time the first 1 or 2 players are being eliminated, we shift into the midgame. If youve survived this long, what I consider to be the hardest part of the game, is now over.
Mid Game
As the first players are getting eliminated, you should already be thinking about what to do next. If you haven't had the chance already, you should probably build a mine soon. Knowing exactly when to build a mine is a tricky thing to time properly. One concern (I consider it overblown) that many people have is building a mine to soon, drawing attention to themselves, and ending up the next gank target. While it is a possible scenario to be mindful of, there are lots of easy ways to prevent the negative reaction and start safely pushing your way into first place.
First, I would only mine once your drill cap is getting close- because capped drills are lost anyway, and the loss of drills near cap will leave you with enough left over to not be vulnerable.
Second, let your allies know that they will get funded by you once you get to 20 Nep (this will have a secondary effect of extending your lead because your allies will likely wait to mine in order to get funded). Alternatively, if your ally is in better shape than you to mine first, reverse the roles and receive the funding to try to power your way back into position. If you are the receiver of funding, get a mine of your own once the funding is in, but beware of climbing too quickly and losing your funding by having less than 20 Nep between the two of you.
Third, only build your mine on anyone else's border if you are extremely confident in your alliance/peace. Otherwise, build it in the center of your territory so that border player is not tempted to reconsider his loyalty.
You will also have to decide where you want your mine- do you want to lose a generator, or a factory? My personal preference is to put the mine on a factory which is in poor position. For example, if you have an extremely trustworthy ally, you dont need a factory on his border building drills way out of position and wasting precious cap space. Alternatively, if you have a Tinkerer with a lot of shield, or a Minister of Energy, you can probably easily afford to sacrifice a gen.
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Now that your first target is down, you will need to review your diplomacy with the other players in the game. It is possible that you pigeon-holed yourself by being overly friendly and having too many alliance/peace agreements. If you took my previous advice, hopefully you might have left yourself some wiggle room by crafting some ambiguous diplomacy, or can invoke the 24 hour warning you promised in a peace-agreement that had the option built in. If not, you might have to get creative by accusing some small action from someone else as a hostile act to justify an attack. Or if absolutely no other option is available, you might just have to break diplomacy. This is not good for your reputation, but in the same token, this is Subterfuge, betrayal will happen. If you conduct yourself in a respectful way, this can possibly be enough to maintain your rep while you carry out this unpopular act.
If you had a good first war and picked up a lot of outposts, but are pigeon-holed with peace, you could also just rush mines. You could also plan for this deliberately, but I havnt thoroughly tested this, so can't assert how viable it is (I myself prefer dominating the game through military action). If going mine heavy, you should look to hire solid defensive specialists, and only build each mine at safe locations in your territory. If you see anyone preparing an attack on you by massing up drills on your border, stop building mines and prepare for war-- congratulations, you are no longer diplomatically pigeon-holed.
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The mid-game is where your specialist choices are most critical, because of how multiples combo together, and how strong a global effect can be when you have a lot of outposts. Partially because of this, and partially because you can start to earn big outpost/drill advantages, the mid-game can be prime time to show off your military prowess.
At a certain point in the mid-game, it becomes clear that at least one player (hopefully you) is getting close to victory, and we shift into the late-game.
Late Game
In the late game you want to keep an extra close eye on the Intelligence Reports window. Who is winning, and by how much? Who could surpass who, and how could it happen? At the end of the game, what place people finish in is the only thing that matters to their rating. Reputation and relationships matter also, but they tend to lose power when it comes time to decide who comes in what place.
If you are in range of shifting upwards in the standings, you should look with hyper focus for ways to do that. If you took action now and achieved an upward shift in the standings, could you hold it before the end of the game? Could anyone below you in the ranking try to pull a similar move on you? Whether you stand to move upward or downward in standing, keep a close eye on the game end clock, and only think about what could possibly happen in that window of time, or what could happen if that window of time were lengthened by the leader losing a mine.
Be suspicious even of your allies as the game comes to an end. An otherwise loyal ally could turn on you when it comes to gaining a spot in standing.
If you are far enough in the lead with enough military might, you will find that you have the power to determine where every other non-eliminated player will finish. This is an extremely satisfying level of power
If Things Go Wrong (aka Defense concepts)
As I've said before, you basically never want to be on defense. Being in a truely defensive position should only happen if something has gone wrong. There's a number of reasons for this. The most obvious is that you only lose drills and outposts while on defense. Another basic reason for this is that you are always alone on defense. While an ally can fund you or gift you drills, it is ultimately you alone doing the fighting over your own outposts.
I want to clarify that if you provoke someone into attacking you so they waste drills on your walls but you know full well that you have the military and diplomatic power to overtake them- this is not truly being on defense. This is stage 1 of an extremely effective style of attack.
That said, if you do find yourself on defense, take solace in the fact that there are a number of mechanics that favor the defender:
-The most obvious is shields. Shields matter because hopefully youve had time to fully charge yours, yet once an enemy takes an outpost from you, the sheilds will be low so that you can nearly trade drill-for-drill.
-Distance/travel time can kill an offense. An attacker generally has to extend outward and away from his core of outposts, while the defender has the advantage of piling up at one edge of his territory- generally meaning defender has less distance to travel.
-While it is the attackers advantage to dictate when the attack happens, it is the defenders advantage to be able to react. It is much more effective to be able to react than it is to launch an attack, where you need to predict how the other player will react. This becomes especially true when specialists enter the equation.
-The power of specialists leans defensive. The vast majority of specialists, (even the ones considered offensive) can be utilized very effectively on defense. The exceptions, like infiltrator, are not particularly powerful specialists.
-Factories under attack produce their own drill defenses without needing to travel.
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Turtling: This means that you draw back your entire army to a single base(usually a factory or mine), or a very small number of bases. At this point the objective is to stay alive and remain a thorn in the side of your attackers, because as long as you are alive, they can not fully forget about you like they can if you are eliminated. A sucessful turtle might even see you outlast someone else who fails to turtle and is eliminated. (at very least it can protect your "eliminated" stat on the global leaderboard).
I would recommend turtling only as a last resort. If you can survive through normal non-turtle defensive measures, you will be much better off in the long run. But also dont wait too long. If you try to turtle too late, you will not have enough drills or you could be undercut as you move into turtle position.
To successfully turtle, you want as many drills as possible, along with a combination of little per-fight specialists (Inspector, War Hero, Lt., King, etc), and some big single use specialists (Double-Agent, Sabateur, Martyr). At a certain point of combined specialists, along with a certain number of drills, it becomes virtually impossible to kill you, even in 2v1/3v1 scenarios. This is basically because with the benefit of reaction discussed above, you can completely destroy small waves without losing a single drill thanks to per fight specs, while also having the power to destroy massive single subs if such an army comes at you.
Once you have reached unkillable critical mass with your turtle, your attackers might choose to contain you instead, and will have to waste lots of stationary drills/specialists to keep you from breaking out of your shell for a delayed counter-attack. If they underestimate you however, you can lash out and start recovering some of your lost outposts.
Also remember these turtle concepts when it comes to being on the attack against someone turtling (in fact, it is from destroying turtles that I have come to learn what make them effective. I myself have never had to do it).
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That concludes the first half of my guide. Stay tuned for part 2, my breakdown on all the specialists.