Sometimes I favor an aggressive opening when their is a layout advantage for example if neighbor has 1 base with drillers and I have 2 bases with drillers. His factory expansion is closer to him but he won't be able to hold it. Another reason for aggressive opening may be if the neighbor showed that he was moving all his drillers away. His drillers won't be able to return in time to defend. Or he sent 3 drillers to an expansion then moved the rest of his drillers away so you send 5. Most often though I just watch to see what others do and focus on getting my own expansions.